The commercial real estate market is constantly shifting, influenced by a mix of economic trends, tech advancements, and new regulations. As we step into 2024, understanding the key drivers of commercial real estate value is crucial for navigating these changes. These forces are shaping property values in ways that bring both challenges and opportunities.

For anyone involved in commercial real estate—whether you’re investing, managing, or developing properties—knowing what drives value is essential. Interest rates are fluctuating, technology is transforming how buildings operate, and regulations are evolving. Staying on top of these trends can make the difference between a smart investment and a missed opportunity.
In this article, we’ll break down the key factors that will impact commercial real estate values in 2024. From economic shifts to the latest market trends, you’ll get a clear picture of what to watch out for and how to make the most of the current landscape.
Economic Factors
The economic landscape plays a crucial role in shaping commercial real estate values, and in 2024, several key economic indicators are at the forefront of this influence. Understanding the impact of interest rates, inflation, and employment rates can provide valuable insights into market trends and help investors make informed decisions.
Interest Rates
Interest rates have always been a significant driver of commercial real estate values. As of 2024, the Federal Reserve has maintained a target federal funds rate between 5.5% and 6% to balance economic growth with inflation control (Federal Reserve, 2023). These moderate interest rates influence borrowing costs, which directly impact investment appetite and property valuations.

Higher interest rates typically lead to increased borrowing costs, which can dampen investment activity and lower property values. According to a report by CBRE, a one-percentage-point increase in interest rates can reduce the purchasing power of investors by approximately 10%, potentially softening property prices (CBRE Research, 2023). However, the impact of interest rates varies across property types. Properties with long-term, stable tenants, such as office buildings with extended leases or industrial properties, may exhibit greater resilience to rate hikes. In contrast, sectors like retail or hospitality, which are more sensitive to consumer spending and have shorter lease terms, may experience more pronounced effects (JLL, 2023).
Inflation
Inflation remains a significant concern in 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) projected to rise by approximately 4% year-over-year (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023). This rate, while lower than the peaks seen in previous years, still presents challenges for both investors and property managers.
Inflation affects commercial real estate in multiple ways. It increases the cost of goods and services, leading to higher operating expenses for property owners. For instance, the cost of building materials and labor has risen by over 6% in the past year, impacting the feasibility of new construction projects and the profitability of existing properties (Engineering News-Record, 2023).
On the flip side, inflation can also lead to higher rental income, particularly if lease agreements are tied to inflation indices. Properties with triple-net leases (where tenants cover property taxes, insurance, and maintenance) are well-positioned to benefit, as these expenses typically rise with inflation and can be passed on to tenants. Additionally, real estate often serves as a hedge against inflation, with property values appreciating alongside rising prices. Historical data suggests that in periods of inflation above 3%, commercial real estate returns have averaged between 7-8%, outpacing other asset classes (NAREIT, 2023).
Employment Rates
Employment rates are a key determinant of demand for commercial real estate. As of mid-2024, the U.S. unemployment rate stands at approximately 4.2%, reflecting a relatively strong job market despite slight increases from the previous year (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023). The strength of the job market directly influences the demand for office spaces, retail locations, and industrial facilities.
In the office real estate sector, employment rates drive occupancy levels. A growing job market typically translates to higher demand for office space as companies expand their workforce. However, the rise of hybrid and remote work models adds complexity to this relationship. According to a recent survey by CBRE, nearly 60% of companies have adopted a hybrid work model, leading to a reevaluation of office space needs and, in some cases, a reduction in required square footage (CBRE Workplace Survey, 2023).
In the industrial real estate sector, strong employment, particularly in manufacturing and logistics, has led to increased demand for warehouse and distribution spaces. The rise of e-commerce, which now accounts for over 20% of total retail sales, has further fueled demand in this sector, with vacancy rates in prime logistics hubs falling to historic lows of around 3.5% (Prologis, 2023).
Overall, while a strong employment market is a positive indicator for commercial real estate, sector-specific dynamics, such as the shift in office space utilization, must be carefully considered when evaluating property investments in 2024.
Location and Market Trends for Commercial Real Estate
The location of a property remains one of the most critical factors in determining its value, and in 2024, various trends are reshaping the landscape of commercial real estate. The balance between urban and suburban development, the rise of emerging markets, and the impact of new infrastructure projects are key elements influencing property values across the country.
Urban vs. Suburban

The dynamic between urban and suburban real estate has been evolving, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. While urban areas have traditionally been the epicenter of commercial real estate activity, recent years have seen a shift toward suburban sprawl, driven by changing lifestyle preferences and work habits.
As of 2024, suburban markets continue to experience robust growth, particularly in sectors like retail and office spaces. According to a report by the Urban Land Institute (ULI), suburban office markets saw a 7% increase in leasing activity over the past year, outpacing many urban cores (ULI, 2023). This trend is largely attributed to the ongoing preference for hybrid work models, which have led companies to establish satellite offices closer to where their employees live.
However, urban centers are far from obsolete. Major cities like New York, San Francisco, and Chicago are witnessing a resurgence as they adapt to new realities. Urban areas are increasingly focusing on mixed-use developments that integrate residential, retail, and office spaces in a single location. These developments cater to the growing demand for convenience and walkability, particularly among younger demographics. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicates that urban multifamily properties have seen a 5% increase in rental rates in the past year, reflecting renewed interest in city living (NAR, 2023).
The balance between urban and suburban real estate is likely to remain fluid, with each offering unique opportunities depending on the specific needs of businesses and investors. The key for commercial real estate professionals will be to stay agile, recognizing the potential in both types of markets.
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are becoming increasingly attractive for commercial real estate investment, particularly as investors seek higher yields and diversification opportunities. In the Mid-Atlantic region, several cities are standing out as growth hubs due to favorable economic conditions, demographic trends, and infrastructure investments.

One such market is Columbia, Maryland, which has seen significant commercial development in recent years. The city’s strategic location between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, coupled with its strong job market and high quality of life, has attracted both businesses and residents. According to a study by CoStar, commercial property values in Columbia have increased by 8% year-over-year, outpacing many larger markets in the region (CoStar, 2023).
Another noteworthy market is Frederick, Maryland. Once considered a secondary market, Frederick has experienced a surge in interest from investors, particularly in the industrial and logistics sectors. The city’s proximity to major transportation corridors, such as I-70 and I-270, makes it an ideal location for distribution centers. In fact, the industrial vacancy rate in Frederick has dropped to just 2.7%, one of the lowest in the state, according to recent data from JLL (JLL, 2023).
Towson, Maryland, also deserves attention as it continues to grow as a commercial real estate hotspot. The ongoing revitalization of Towson’s downtown area, with new mixed-use developments and a focus on walkability, has led to increased demand for retail and office spaces. Property prices in Towson have risen by 6% over the past year, reflecting the market’s strong performance (CBRE, 2023).
Investors looking to capitalize on emerging markets should consider these areas, as they offer a combination of growth potential and relative affordability compared to more established markets.
Infrastructure Developments
Infrastructure development is a powerful catalyst for commercial real estate value growth, and in 2024, several key projects are reshaping markets across the country. New transportation networks, utility upgrades, and public amenities not only improve accessibility but also enhance the attractiveness of surrounding properties.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, the expansion of the Purple Line, a light rail project in Maryland, is a prime example of how infrastructure can boost real estate values. The Purple Line, which connects key suburban areas around Washington, D.C., has already led to increased interest in commercial properties along its route. According to a report by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, property values within a half-mile of the new stations are projected to increase by 10-15% once the line is fully operational (Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, 2023).
Similarly, the ongoing development of the BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport area is another infrastructure project with significant implications for commercial real estate. The planned expansion of the airport, including new terminal facilities and improved road access, is expected to drive demand for nearby hotel, office, and retail spaces. The Maryland Department of Transportation estimates that this project will generate over $2 billion in economic activity, with a corresponding increase in property values in surrounding areas (Maryland Department of Transportation, 2023).
Utility upgrades, such as the expansion of broadband networks in rural and suburban areas, are also playing a critical role in boosting property values. As businesses increasingly rely on high-speed internet for operations, areas with upgraded digital infrastructure are becoming more attractive for commercial development. A study by the Fiber Broadband Association found that access to fiber-optic networks can increase property values by as much as 3.1% (Fiber Broadband Association, 2023).
These infrastructure projects highlight the importance of location and accessibility in commercial real estate. Properties near new or upgraded infrastructure are likely to see enhanced value, making them attractive investments in the coming years.
Technological Advancements
Technology is transforming the commercial real estate industry, bringing new efficiencies, enhancing property values, and reshaping the way buildings are managed and operated. In 2024, two key technological advancements—smart buildings and property technology (PropTech)—are at the forefront of these changes, offering significant benefits to property owners, tenants, and investors alike.
Smart Buildings
Smart buildings are an increasingly important trend in commercial real estate, leveraging technology to improve energy efficiency, enhance tenant experiences, and ultimately boost property values. As sustainability becomes a priority for both tenants and regulators, smart buildings, which integrate advanced systems to monitor and optimize energy use, are becoming a crucial part of the real estate landscape.

In 2024, smart buildings are equipped with systems that can automatically adjust lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) based on occupancy and weather conditions. These systems not only reduce energy consumption by up to 30%, according to the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC, 2023), but also contribute to lower operating costs and higher tenant satisfaction. Properties that achieve LEED certification, a recognized standard for sustainability, often see a 5-10% premium in rental rates compared to non-certified buildings (USGBC, 2023).
Connectivity is another key aspect of smart buildings. The integration of Internet of Things (IoT) devices allows for real-time monitoring and management of building systems, providing valuable data that can be used to optimize operations. For example, smart sensors can detect maintenance issues before they become critical, reducing downtime and repair costs. According to a report by Deloitte, buildings with advanced IoT capabilities can increase asset value by up to 7% (Deloitte, 2023).
Smart buildings also offer enhanced security features, such as biometric access control and advanced surveillance systems, which not only improve safety but also add to the property's appeal to high-end tenants. As the demand for sustainable, tech-enabled spaces grows, the market for smart buildings is expected to expand significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 10% through 2028 (MarketsandMarkets, 2023).
PropTech
Property technology, or PropTech, is revolutionizing the way commercial real estate is managed, offering new tools and platforms that streamline operations, enhance tenant engagement, and provide deeper insights into property performance. PropTech encompasses a wide range of innovations, from digital platforms for property management to AI-driven analytics that inform investment decisions.
One of the most significant impacts of PropTech is in property management. Platforms like Yardi and AppFolio offer comprehensive solutions that automate rent collection, maintenance requests, and tenant communications, significantly reducing the administrative burden on property managers. If you're interested in exploring the top platforms, including AppFolio, check out our article on the Top 5 Property Management Software Solutions for 2024. According to a study by McKinsey & Company, PropTech solutions can reduce property management costs by up to 25% while improving tenant retention by 15% (McKinsey & Company, 2023).
AI and big data analytics are also playing a critical role in PropTech. These technologies enable property owners and investors to analyze large volumes of data, from market trends to tenant behavior, providing actionable insights that can inform pricing strategies, identify investment opportunities, and mitigate risks. For instance, AI-driven platforms can predict tenant turnover and vacancy rates with up to 90% accuracy, allowing property managers to proactively address potential issues (CB Insights, 2023).
Virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) are other PropTech innovations making waves in commercial real estate. These technologies allow potential tenants and buyers to take virtual tours of properties, even from remote locations, increasing the reach of marketing efforts and shortening the leasing cycle. According to a report by PwC, properties that use VR/AR in their marketing strategies see a 20% reduction in vacancy times (PwC, 2023).
Blockchain technology is also emerging as a powerful tool in PropTech, particularly in the area of transaction management. Blockchain offers a secure, transparent platform for recording property transactions, reducing the risk of fraud and increasing the efficiency of closing processes. A study by Deloitte found that blockchain could reduce transaction times by 30% and cut associated costs by up to 20% (Deloitte, 2023).
As PropTech continues to evolve, it is poised to reshape the commercial real estate industry, offering new ways to enhance property value, improve operational efficiency, and deliver superior tenant experiences.
Regulatory Environment
The regulatory environment is a fundamental aspect of commercial real estate that directly impacts property development, value, and long-term viability. In 2024, zoning laws and environmental regulations are two key areas of focus for investors, developers, and property managers. These regulations not only influence the feasibility of development projects but also play a significant role in determining the marketability and value of commercial properties.
Zoning Laws
Zoning laws are critical regulatory tools that govern land use and development within specific jurisdictions. These regulations dictate how land can be used—whether for residential, commercial, industrial, or mixed-use purposes—and impose restrictions on building height, density, lot coverage, and more. Understanding and navigating zoning laws is essential for any commercial real estate development, as these regulations can significantly impact the scope, scale, and profitability of a project.
In 2024, zoning laws continue to evolve, particularly in urban areas where local governments are balancing the need for development with community interests and environmental considerations. For example, many cities are implementing more stringent zoning regulations to control urban sprawl, preserve green spaces, and promote sustainable development. According to a report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), restrictive zoning laws can increase the cost of development by up to 25%, as developers are required to comply with additional regulations, obtain special permits, or rezone properties (NAHB, 2023).
One notable trend is the increasing prevalence of mixed-use zoning, which allows for the development of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces within the same area. Mixed-use zoning is particularly popular in urban centers where space is limited, and there is a push for walkable communities. Properties located in mixed-use zones often command higher values due to their versatility and appeal to a broader range of tenants. A study by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) found that mixed-use developments can achieve a 10-20% premium in property values compared to single-use commercial properties (ULI, 2023).
However, zoning laws can also pose challenges, particularly for developers looking to convert properties to new uses. For instance, changing a property's use from industrial to residential may require rezoning, which can be a lengthy and costly process involving public hearings, community opposition, and legal challenges. The complexity of zoning regulations underscores the importance of conducting thorough due diligence and engaging with local planning authorities early in the development process.
Environmental Regulations
Environmental regulations are becoming increasingly critical in commercial real estate, particularly as sustainability and climate change concerns gain prominence. These regulations encompass a wide range of requirements, including environmental impact assessments (EIAs), energy efficiency standards, waste management protocols, and protections for natural habitats.
In 2024, environmental regulations are more stringent than ever, reflecting a global push towards sustainability. For commercial real estate developers and property owners, compliance with these regulations is not only a legal obligation but also a factor that can significantly influence property values. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), properties that fail to meet environmental standards may face penalties, costly remediation, and diminished marketability (EPA, 2023).
One key area of focus is the requirement for environmental impact assessments (EIAs), which evaluate the potential environmental effects of a proposed development. EIAs are mandatory for many large-scale commercial projects, particularly those that involve significant land disturbance, resource use, or emissions. These assessments are critical in identifying and mitigating negative environmental impacts, and projects that pass rigorous EIA processes are often viewed more favorably by investors and the public. A report by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) found that projects with strong environmental credentials can attract up to 15% more investment capital compared to projects with minimal sustainability focus (IFC, 2023).
Sustainability requirements are also influencing building design and operations. Green building certifications, such as LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method), are increasingly becoming standard practice in commercial real estate. Properties that achieve these certifications are recognized for their energy efficiency, resource conservation, and healthy indoor environments. The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) reports that LEED-certified buildings can achieve a 5-10% increase in rental rates and a similar premium in property values due to their lower operating costs and appeal to environmentally conscious tenants (USGBC, 2023).
A significant upcoming change in environmental regulations is the transition to new HVAC refrigerants starting in 2025. As part of global efforts to phase out substances with high global warming potential (GWP), the U.S. will implement new rules mandating the use of lower-GWP refrigerants in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has identified hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as significant contributors to climate change and has set a timeline for their phasedown under the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act.
This change means that starting in 2025, new HVAC systems will be required to use refrigerants with lower GWP, such as R-32 or R-454B, instead of the widely used R-410A, which has a higher GWP. For commercial property owners, this shift has several implications. First, it may increase upfront costs for new HVAC installations, as the new systems may be more expensive due to the change in technology and materials. However, these systems are also likely to be more energy-efficient, potentially leading to lower operating costs over time. According to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), the new refrigerants could improve system efficiency by up to 10%, contributing to reduced energy consumption and lower utility bills (AHRI, 2023).
Moreover, properties with outdated HVAC systems that still rely on phased-out refrigerants may face depreciation in value, as future buyers and tenants increasingly prioritize sustainability and compliance with environmental regulations. The cost of retrofitting or replacing these systems could become a significant factor in property valuation.
Overall, the regulatory environment in 2024 and beyond demands that commercial real estate stakeholders prioritize compliance with zoning and environmental regulations. Doing so not only ensures legal and financial security but also enhances the long-term value and sustainability of their properties.
Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior
Market sentiment and investor behavior play a critical role in shaping the commercial real estate landscape. In 2024, these factors are especially important as investors navigate a complex environment characterized by economic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and evolving regulatory frameworks. Understanding how investor confidence and risk management strategies are influencing demand and property values can provide valuable insights for stakeholders in the industry.
Investor Confidence
Investor confidence is a key driver of demand in commercial real estate, directly influencing property values and transaction volumes. When investors are optimistic about the market, they are more likely to pursue acquisitions, developments, and expansions, leading to increased demand and higher property values. Conversely, when confidence wanes, investment activity tends to slow, putting downward pressure on prices.
As of 2024, investor confidence is shaped by a mix of positive and negative factors. On the positive side, the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with strong employment figures and robust consumer spending, has bolstered confidence in certain sectors, particularly industrial and multifamily properties. According to a survey by PwC, 62% of commercial real estate investors expressed optimism about the long-term growth prospects of the U.S. economy, citing continued demand for e-commerce logistics and rental housing as key drivers (PwC, 2023).
However, this optimism is tempered by concerns over rising interest rates and inflation, which are increasing the cost of capital and squeezing profit margins. A report by CBRE indicates that nearly 40% of investors are cautious about the potential impact of interest rate hikes on property values, with some expecting cap rates to rise as borrowing costs increase (CBRE, 2023). This cautious sentiment is particularly evident in the office and retail sectors, where structural changes, such as remote work and shifts in consumer behavior, are creating uncertainty.
Investor confidence is also influenced by geopolitical risks and regulatory changes. The ongoing trade tensions between major economies and the tightening of environmental regulations are factors that could impact global supply chains and operating costs, leading to a more conservative approach among investors. Despite these challenges, sectors that offer stable cash flows, such as healthcare and data centers, continue to attract strong investor interest, reflecting confidence in their resilience and growth potential (Deloitte, 2023).
Overall, while investor confidence in commercial real estate remains strong in certain sectors, there is a heightened focus on due diligence and market research to navigate the complexities of 2024.
Risk Management
Risk management has become a central focus for commercial real estate investors in 2024, especially given the economic uncertainties and market volatility. Investors are increasingly adopting sophisticated strategies to mitigate risks and protect their portfolios from potential downturns.
One of the primary concerns for investors in 2024 is interest rate risk. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a tighter monetary policy to combat inflation, interest rates are expected to remain elevated throughout the year. This environment has prompted investors to seek out fixed-rate financing options to lock in borrowing costs and avoid the risk of future rate increases. A study by JLL found that 55% of investors are prioritizing fixed-rate debt over variable-rate loans in 2024, compared to 40% in 2022 (JLL, 2023). Additionally, investors are increasingly turning to interest rate hedging instruments, such as swaps and caps, to manage exposure to rate fluctuations.
Another critical aspect of risk management is diversification. Investors are spreading their portfolios across different asset classes and geographic regions to reduce reliance on any single market or property type. For instance, many are shifting capital towards sectors that have shown resilience during economic downturns, such as industrial, multifamily, and healthcare properties. According to a report by BlackRock, diversified portfolios that include a mix of asset classes, such as real estate, infrastructure, and private equity, have outperformed single-asset portfolios by an average of 2-3% annually over the past decade (BlackRock, 2023).
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are also playing an increasingly important role in risk management strategies. With stricter environmental regulations on the horizon and growing demand for sustainable investments, many investors are prioritizing properties that meet high ESG standards. Properties that fail to comply with ESG criteria may face regulatory penalties, higher operating costs, and reduced tenant demand, making them riskier investments. A survey by EY found that 72% of institutional investors consider ESG factors as part of their risk management process, with a focus on energy efficiency, carbon emissions, and social impact (EY, 2023).
Furthermore, geopolitical risks are being closely monitored by investors. The potential for disruptions in global supply chains, trade policies, and international relations can have significant implications for commercial real estate markets. Investors are increasingly incorporating scenario planning and stress testing into their risk management frameworks to anticipate and respond to these risks effectively.
In summary, investors in 2024 are approaching risk management with a heightened level of sophistication, leveraging a combination of financial tools, diversification strategies, and ESG considerations to navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
Conclusion
In 2024, the commercial real estate landscape is shaped by a complex interplay of economic factors, technological advancements, regulatory changes, and market sentiment. Understanding these key drivers is essential for making informed investment decisions and maximizing property values.
We’ve explored how interest rates, inflation, and employment rates are influencing the market, highlighting the importance of staying attuned to economic indicators that directly impact property demand and valuation. The shift toward smart buildings and the rise of PropTech demonstrate how technology is transforming commercial real estate, offering new opportunities to enhance asset value and operational efficiency. Meanwhile, the evolving regulatory environment, particularly changes in zoning laws and environmental regulations, underscores the need for compliance and sustainability in today’s market.
Investor confidence and risk management are also crucial factors that can significantly affect investment outcomes. With the current economic uncertainties, investors are prioritizing risk mitigation strategies, including portfolio diversification, fixed-rate financing, and a focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors. These approaches are vital in navigating the challenges and opportunities that 2024 presents.
As the commercial real estate market continues to evolve, staying informed about these drivers is more important than ever. Smart investment decisions rely on a deep understanding of the factors that influence property values and market trends. By keeping a close eye on these developments, investors can position themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks effectively.
For those looking to delve deeper into these topics or seeking expert guidance on navigating the complexities of the commercial real estate market, JFI Real Estate Management is here to help. Our team of seasoned professionals is dedicated to providing the insights and strategies you need to succeed in today’s dynamic environment. We invite you to explore these factors further and contact us for personalized advice and support. Visit us at www.jfirealestate.com to learn more about how we can assist you in achieving your investment goals.
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